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How and why exchanges are manipulating the price in order to capitalize on the new market dynamics
The current market seems to be largely driven not by organic buying and selling, but by exchange driven manipulation of the spot market to exploit the current dynamics of leverage trading. We just saw it again now as they liquidated 3K longs but you can see this pattern of clear manipulation over and over in the last few weeks . We have seen several forces set an incentive for exchanges to do this:
Consistently declining volume - this leads to lower total fee revenue for exchanges, and an incentive to manipulate the price in order to earn revenue through liquidations rather than trading fees.
Move towards more leveraged positions - both leveraged shorts and leveraged longs are at or near record levels. Shorts especially have gone from 8K outstanding in January to 33K right now, a whole tripling in outstanding positions.
Move away from the spot market and towards derivatives - Anybody who has been checking the combined orderbook over the last few months has seen Bitmex completely take over the market, while GDAX, Bitfinex, Gemini and others see consistent declines. I've noticed myself an increased interest across the Internet on how derivatives work and anecdotely I have seen more people move away from the HODL meme and towards trading taking high margin bets with a portion of their stack.
Some exchanges like Gemini have reacted to all of this by increasing their trading fees by 400%. Meanwhile Bitfinex specifically seems to be using its hefty weight to manipulate the price in order to capitalize on the record number of people using margin to bet. Both longs and shorts are bets on the price moving up or down and they have a "liquidation price" at which they get liquidated by the exchange, essentially the exchange gets the entire stack they bet with and extracts a high market fee multiplied by the leverage. Since the exchanges know the characteristics of the outstanding shorts/longs, and since volume is low after these pumps or dumps leading to sideways drift, they can essentially engineer movements in price that create income in terms of liquidations. When there are lots of overleveraged shorts, an exchange can pump the price with bots briefly and collect the short position. Same with longs but in reverse, a quick burst of selling pressure. You can see this in the most recent pumps too on Bitfinex, where 1K buy orders appear out of nowhere after long sideways movement only to be followed by either sideway movement or slow bleed on pathetic volume: https://i.imgur.com/3YaWVBI.png https://i.imgur.com/pvpcd7Z.png Take a look at the most recent pump up to 7K, it instantanously liquidated about 700 short positions: https://i.imgur.com/3sCLEB8.png Now this last dump was a laddered 12.5K sell order on Bitfinex that liquidated around 3K long contracts https://i.imgur.com/znYyUT8.png Bitfinex tends to be where the big money traders move (their minimum deposit is 10K) so even if each long position was only 0.5 BTC on average they exchange would make a ton of money. If you look at the BitmexRekt twitter feed that shows a running list of Bitmex liquidations with humorous commetary, you will see many >$1 million dollar positions being liquidated during these moves. This is what all the "Bart" formations we have seen stem from. Its not George Soros pumping Bitcoin for shits and giggles, nor is it the nebolous "whales". They have no incentive to try and pull off PnDs now that it only leads to either sideways movement or decline after the pump. A PnD only works if the delta between the top of the pump end point and dump initiation point is positive, while now it seems to be followed by sideways movement. Those who do want to bet on further upward movements seem to be doing it off the spot market, using margin with futures and perpetuity swaps on Bitmex. This makes the low volume spot market ripe for manipulation, exchanges like Bitfinex and Bitmex have every incentive right now to manipulate the price. Looking back it seems almost inevitable that this would have happened, that traders would try to replicate the gains they saw by buying and selling on the spot market a few months ago by using increased leverage and derivatives. In December and January there were days where your holdings would increase by at least 20% no matter what you bought. Once you experience those 20% daily gains you don't want to go back to a market where it slowly bleeds down a few percent every week, so people jumped in on high leverage short positions to multiply their profit on those single percent moves down. For the small time investor there really isn't much you can do to stop this. This is what being part of an unregulated market means, it means that things like wash trading and long/short liquidation hunting is allowed. All you can really do if you're a trader is look at the current ratio of longs vs shorts on Bitfinex and be aware that once short contracts become too high its possible that an exchange may pump the price to profit on it, while if the longs become too dominant we may see a dump. Edit: Bitfinex, not Bitfenix.
So, in chatting with the devteam on twitter it seems like our next big obstacle is getting added to some more exchanges, so, I wrote a quick how-to guide on exactly that. I've managed to find an article that actually gives some good info on instructions/suggestions on how to do this. The best way, would likely just be by emailing the exchange, and I'll type up a quick suggestion as to what to say. However, feel free to change the message so it's not just looking like a bunch of copy-paste spam from bots or something. I've also added a chart of major exchanges along with their contact emails for easy copy-pasting into your emails.
* = unable to find a proper email, so the one listed may be a media contact or something until we find the correct one. ** = Community cannot help here, listing requires the devteam to contact the exchange officially. Below I'll include a brief demo of what we are trying to get across in the email, feel free to just copy and paste this but tweaking or writing your own is encouraged as we want the teams to actually read our messages, not just delete them as spam. Hello, I just thought I would write to you concerning a coin that you currently do not have listed on your exchange, TheHempCoin (THC). THC has been around for years, originally starting back in November of 2014, however, it only really started to take off this November thanks to the legalisation in California and the upcoming news from Canada and Mexico alike. In addition, over the past few months, the development team have been releasing quite a few updates and are currently looking at doing a rebrand along with a hardfork. Unlike the rest of these so-called "Potcoins" the team here intend to target the agricultural market as a whole, not just limiting themselves to Marijuana and the associated industry meaning a far larger market. Currently the only place to trade this coin is on Bittrex but seeing that they are not accepting new members currently, there has been plenty of growth, however, there are also lots of people seeing this growth and wanting to buy in but being unable to, thanks to the exchange. Adding this coin to your exchange would likely boost your visitor count seeing that it would mean you would currently be the one-and-only place available to purchase THC. In the past 2-3 months alone we have gone up about 1600% even with the decline in bitcoin, and we don't look to be stopping anytime soon. The devteam has confirmed that there will be a new website and whitepaper published very soon and all the links can be found on their twitter, which is where they are most active in the community. I will leave links to where you can contact the team below. Lastly, I would like to thank you for taking the time to consider this proposal and I look forward to trading with you soon. Official Website - http://www.hempcoin.org/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/thehempcoin/ Reddit - https://reddit.com/thehempcoin/ Facebook* - https://www.facebook.com/HempCoin/ Bitcointalk - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=506320.0/ Discord - https://discord.gg/5qJGbv9/ Coinlib page - https://coinlib.io/coin/THC/the+hempcoin/ * - a non-official social platform created by the community Sincerly, Sign your own name/handle here This should hopefully help us get listed on a few more exchanges and hopefully allow some of those who want to purchase some THC and get into it, actually do so! One big thing we want to keep in mind: In doing this, we don't want to come off as entitled or that we are owed something. We also want to keep any price targets or anything completely out of this as that is regarded as a huge negative. As I said above, feel free to type up your own message, mine is just here as inspiration per-say, but try to keep it professional, we don't want to annoy them, we just want it to be evident that we have a serious demand here. Also, just a reminder, I'm not part of the devteam, I just believe in their product and I'm trying to get their message out there. We see about 1000-2000 visitors daily so I figured even if 10% of us send out these emails, we can easily see 150 people trying to contact the exchanges and hopefully soon we can see another get added! Lastly, if you have any suggestions or would like to add to the list here, just leave a comment and I'll do my best to get back to you ASAP. Thanks! Oh, one more thing. I know I gave u/no1CryptoWhale a hard time concerning posts about "shilling" I still believe that we need to be careful in this endeavour but I'm also willing to admit when I'm wrong, we evidently do need to pitch in and help the devs. However, we need to be wary of the language and terms we use as this is a delicate matter and even industry, as we can see with BTC this week... -Zach
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